Collate all results
Alex Pate
2025-05-14
1 Baseline information
1.1 Female cohort
Baseline information
| Characteristic | development N = 6,929,6961 |
validation N = 2,969,8691 |
|---|---|---|
| gender | ||
| Â Â Â Â 2 | 6,929,696 (100%) | 2,969,869 (100%) |
| age | ||
| Â Â Â Â Median (5% Centile, Q1, Q3, 95% Centile) | 34 (18, 25, 49, 73) | 34 (18, 25, 49, 73) |
| Â Â Â Â N Missing (% Missing%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
| ethnicity | ||
| Â Â Â Â bangladeshi | 43,277 (0.6%) | 18,378 (0.6%) |
| Â Â Â Â black african | 181,931 (2.6%) | 78,495 (2.6%) |
| Â Â Â Â black caribbean | 85,845 (1.2%) | 36,784 (1.2%) |
| Â Â Â Â chinese | 114,966 (1.7%) | 49,099 (1.7%) |
| Â Â Â Â indian | 184,284 (2.7%) | 78,619 (2.6%) |
| Â Â Â Â other asian | 151,978 (2.2%) | 65,218 (2.2%) |
| Â Â Â Â other ethnic | 339,518 (4.9%) | 146,198 (4.9%) |
| Â Â Â Â pakistani | 98,819 (1.4%) | 42,487 (1.4%) |
| Â Â Â Â white | 4,910,925 (71%) | 2,104,181 (71%) |
| Â Â Â Â Missing | 818,153 (12%) | 350,410 (12%) |
| hypertension | 590,168 (8.5%) | 253,150 (8.5%) |
| ra | 41,340 (0.6%) | 17,859 (0.6%) |
| af | 31,866 (0.5%) | 13,636 (0.5%) |
| ckd | 48,832 (0.7%) | 20,942 (0.7%) |
| smi | 106,151 (1.5%) | 45,653 (1.5%) |
| fhcvd | 489,757 (7.1%) | 209,389 (7.1%) |
| migraine | 491,209 (7.1%) | 210,680 (7.1%) |
| sle | 8,378 (0.1%) | 3,473 (0.1%) |
| diabetes | ||
| Â Â Â Â Absent | 6,764,724 (98%) | 2,898,508 (98%) |
| Â Â Â Â Type1 | 22,967 (0.3%) | 10,099 (0.3%) |
| Â Â Â Â Type2 | 142,005 (2.0%) | 61,262 (2.1%) |
| impotence | 1,325 (<0.1%) | 568 (<0.1%) |
| cortico | 50,139 (0.7%) | 21,508 (0.7%) |
| antipsy | 26,998 (0.4%) | 11,768 (0.4%) |
| smoking | ||
| Â Â Â Â Non-smoker | 3,700,998 (53%) | 1,586,524 (53%) |
| Â Â Â Â Ex-smoker | 1,350,555 (19%) | 577,256 (19%) |
| Â Â Â Â Current | 1,303,909 (19%) | 560,242 (19%) |
| Â Â Â Â Missing | 574,234 (8.3%) | 245,847 (8.3%) |
| statins | 223,438 (3.2%) | 96,352 (3.2%) |
| antihypertensives | 553,177 (8.0%) | 237,712 (8.0%) |
| copd | 55,568 (0.8%) | 23,891 (0.8%) |
| int_dis | 21,499 (0.3%) | 9,343 (0.3%) |
| downs | 3,470 (<0.1%) | 1,396 (<0.1%) |
| oral_cancer | 2,285 (<0.1%) | 1,035 (<0.1%) |
| brain_cancer | 1,818 (<0.1%) | 785 (<0.1%) |
| lung_cancer | 2,706 (<0.1%) | 1,038 (<0.1%) |
| blood_cancer | 13,681 (0.2%) | 5,863 (0.2%) |
| pre_eclampsia | 19,431 (0.3%) | 8,358 (0.3%) |
| postnatal_depression | 91,692 (1.3%) | 39,140 (1.3%) |
| bmi | ||
| Â Â Â Â Median (5% Centile, Q1, Q3, 95% Centile) | 24.2 (19.1, 21.6, 28.3, 36.6) | 24.2 (19.1, 21.6, 28.3, 36.6) |
| Â Â Â Â N Missing (% Missing%) | 2,507,999 (36%) | 1,075,506 (36%) |
| sbp | ||
| Â Â Â Â Median (5% Centile, Q1, Q3, 95% Centile) | 120 (99, 110, 131, 150) | 120 (99, 110, 131, 150) |
| Â Â Â Â N Missing (% Missing%) | 1,430,104 (21%) | 612,157 (21%) |
| sbp_var | ||
| Â Â Â Â Median (5% Centile, Q1, Q3, 95% Centile) | 8.7 (1.0, 5.7, 12.7, 19.9) | 8.7 (1.0, 5.6, 12.7, 19.9) |
| Â Â Â Â N Missing (% Missing%) | 3,191,936 (46%) | 1,367,343 (46%) |
| cholhdl_ratio | ||
| Â Â Â Â Median (5% Centile, Q1, Q3, 95% Centile) | 3.40 (2.10, 2.80, 4.20, 5.60) | 3.40 (2.10, 2.80, 4.20, 5.60) |
| Â Â Â Â N Missing (% Missing%) | 5,738,652 (83%) | 2,460,544 (83%) |
| nonhdl | ||
| Â Â Â Â Median (5% Centile, Q1, Q3, 95% Centile) | 3.60 (2.10, 2.90, 4.40, 5.70) | 3.60 (2.10, 2.90, 4.40, 5.70) |
| Â Â Â Â N Missing (% Missing%) | 5,745,669 (83%) | 2,463,590 (83%) |
| IMD | ||
| Â Â Â Â Median (5% Centile, Q1, Q3, 95% Centile) | 11.0 (2.0, 6.0, 15.0, 19.0) | 11.0 (2.0, 6.0, 15.0, 19.0) |
| Â Â Â Â N Missing (% Missing%) | 8,544 (0.1%) | 3,741 (0.1%) |
| cholesterol | ||
| Â Â Â Â Median (5% Centile, Q1, Q3, 95% Centile) | 5.20 (3.60, 4.50, 6.00, 7.20) | 5.20 (3.60, 4.50, 6.00, 7.20) |
| Â Â Â Â N Missing (% Missing%) | 5,505,444 (79%) | 2,360,651 (79%) |
| hdl | ||
| Â Â Â Â Median (5% Centile, Q1, Q3, 95% Centile) | 1.50 (0.99, 1.26, 1.80, 2.38) | 1.50 (0.99, 1.26, 1.80, 2.38) |
| Â Â Â Â N Missing (% Missing%) | 5,748,636 (83%) | 2,464,770 (83%) |
| ldl | ||
| Â Â Â Â Median (5% Centile, Q1, Q3, 95% Centile) | 3.00 (1.66, 2.40, 3.70, 4.80) | 3.00 (1.67, 2.40, 3.70, 4.80) |
| Â Â Â Â N Missing (% Missing%) | 5,985,980 (86%) | 2,566,826 (86%) |
| 1 n (%) | ||
Outcome incidence rates
| total follow up (years) | n events | rate (per 1000 years) | year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3549114 | 19530 | 5.502781 | 2005-01-01 |
| 3623014 | 19314 | 5.330920 | 2006-01-01 |
| 3693905 | 19232 | 5.206414 | 2007-01-01 |
| 3787201 | 19668 | 5.193282 | 2008-01-01 |
| 3855245 | 19658 | 5.099027 | 2009-01-01 |
| 3914935 | 19596 | 5.005447 | 2010-01-01 |
| 3969437 | 19485 | 4.908757 | 2011-01-01 |
| 4045228 | 20074 | 4.962390 | 2012-01-01 |
| 4079327 | 19421 | 4.760835 | 2013-01-01 |
| 4111786 | 19433 | 4.726170 | 2014-01-01 |
| 4198558 | 19709 | 4.694231 | 2015-01-01 |
| 4321645 | 19841 | 4.591076 | 2016-01-01 |
| 4418138 | 20555 | 4.652412 | 2017-01-01 |
| 4513019 | 20766 | 4.601354 | 2018-01-01 |
| 5256346 | 25101 | 4.775371 | 2019-01-01 |
1.2 Male cohort
Baseline information
| Characteristic | development N = 6,657,5871 |
validation N = 2,853,2511 |
|---|---|---|
| gender | ||
| Â Â Â Â 1 | 6,657,587 (100%) | 2,853,251 (100%) |
| age | ||
| Â Â Â Â Median (5% Centile, Q1, Q3, 95% Centile) | 35 (18, 25, 48, 69) | 35 (18, 25, 48, 69) |
| Â Â Â Â N Missing (% Missing%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
| ethnicity | ||
| Â Â Â Â bangladeshi | 47,739 (0.7%) | 20,343 (0.7%) |
| Â Â Â Â black african | 161,076 (2.4%) | 68,622 (2.4%) |
| Â Â Â Â black caribbean | 69,313 (1.0%) | 29,520 (1.0%) |
| Â Â Â Â chinese | 76,534 (1.1%) | 33,081 (1.2%) |
| Â Â Â Â indian | 186,961 (2.8%) | 80,134 (2.8%) |
| Â Â Â Â other asian | 148,388 (2.2%) | 63,788 (2.2%) |
| Â Â Â Â other ethnic | 297,217 (4.5%) | 127,462 (4.5%) |
| Â Â Â Â pakistani | 109,090 (1.6%) | 46,543 (1.6%) |
| Â Â Â Â white | 4,161,907 (63%) | 1,783,483 (63%) |
| Â Â Â Â Missing | 1,399,362 (21%) | 600,275 (21%) |
| hypertension | 491,513 (7.4%) | 210,718 (7.4%) |
| ra | 15,948 (0.2%) | 6,729 (0.2%) |
| af | 42,997 (0.6%) | 18,482 (0.6%) |
| ckd | 34,740 (0.5%) | 14,888 (0.5%) |
| smi | 92,766 (1.4%) | 39,917 (1.4%) |
| fhcvd | 373,041 (5.6%) | 159,804 (5.6%) |
| migraine | 189,737 (2.8%) | 81,834 (2.9%) |
| sle | 1,059 (<0.1%) | 461 (<0.1%) |
| diabetes | ||
| Â Â Â Â Absent | 6,457,605 (97%) | 2,767,670 (97%) |
| Â Â Â Â Type1 | 30,724 (0.5%) | 12,986 (0.5%) |
| Â Â Â Â Type2 | 169,258 (2.5%) | 72,595 (2.5%) |
| impotence | 264,625 (4.0%) | 113,546 (4.0%) |
| cortico | 30,086 (0.5%) | 12,980 (0.5%) |
| antipsy | 33,183 (0.5%) | 14,445 (0.5%) |
| smoking | ||
| Â Â Â Â Non-smoker | 2,808,997 (42%) | 1,204,336 (42%) |
| Â Â Â Â Ex-smoker | 1,218,152 (18%) | 522,006 (18%) |
| Â Â Â Â Current | 1,533,440 (23%) | 657,095 (23%) |
| Â Â Â Â Missing | 1,096,998 (16%) | 469,814 (16%) |
| statins | 236,194 (3.5%) | 100,852 (3.5%) |
| antihypertensives | 439,853 (6.6%) | 188,251 (6.6%) |
| copd | 58,969 (0.9%) | 25,101 (0.9%) |
| int_dis | 31,114 (0.5%) | 13,533 (0.5%) |
| downs | 3,644 (<0.1%) | 1,543 (<0.1%) |
| oral_cancer | 4,030 (<0.1%) | 1,702 (<0.1%) |
| brain_cancer | 2,165 (<0.1%) | 941 (<0.1%) |
| lung_cancer | 2,852 (<0.1%) | 1,194 (<0.1%) |
| blood_cancer | 16,121 (0.2%) | 6,822 (0.2%) |
| pre_eclampsia | 14 (<0.1%) | 6 (<0.1%) |
| postnatal_depression | 230 (<0.1%) | 104 (<0.1%) |
| bmi | ||
| Â Â Â Â Median (5% Centile, Q1, Q3, 95% Centile) | 25.4 (19.8, 22.8, 28.5, 34.5) | 25.4 (19.8, 22.8, 28.5, 34.5) |
| Â Â Â Â N Missing (% Missing%) | 3,133,025 (47%) | 1,341,453 (47%) |
| sbp | ||
| Â Â Â Â Median (5% Centile, Q1, Q3, 95% Centile) | 130 (105, 120, 139, 155) | 130 (105, 120, 139, 155) |
| Â Â Â Â N Missing (% Missing%) | 2,781,539 (42%) | 1,191,013 (42%) |
| sbp_var | ||
| Â Â Â Â Median (5% Centile, Q1, Q3, 95% Centile) | 9 (1, 5, 14, 21) | 9 (0, 5, 14, 21) |
| Â Â Â Â N Missing (% Missing%) | 4,920,835 (74%) | 2,109,056 (74%) |
| cholhdl_ratio | ||
| Â Â Â Â Median (5% Centile, Q1, Q3, 95% Centile) | 4.04 (2.40, 3.29, 5.00, 6.50) | 4.03 (2.40, 3.29, 4.96, 6.50) |
| Â Â Â Â N Missing (% Missing%) | 5,511,264 (83%) | 2,361,129 (83%) |
| nonhdl | ||
| Â Â Â Â Median (5% Centile, Q1, Q3, 95% Centile) | 3.79 (2.11, 3.05, 4.50, 5.70) | 3.78 (2.11, 3.05, 4.50, 5.70) |
| Â Â Â Â N Missing (% Missing%) | 5,516,764 (83%) | 2,363,442 (83%) |
| IMD | ||
| Â Â Â Â Median (5% Centile, Q1, Q3, 95% Centile) | 11.0 (2.0, 6.0, 15.0, 19.0) | 11.0 (2.0, 6.0, 15.0, 19.0) |
| Â Â Â Â N Missing (% Missing%) | 8,251 (0.1%) | 3,582 (0.1%) |
| cholesterol | ||
| Â Â Â Â Median (5% Centile, Q1, Q3, 95% Centile) | 5.10 (3.40, 4.40, 5.80, 7.00) | 5.10 (3.40, 4.40, 5.80, 7.00) |
| Â Â Â Â N Missing (% Missing%) | 5,296,726 (80%) | 2,269,252 (80%) |
| hdl | ||
| Â Â Â Â Median (5% Centile, Q1, Q3, 95% Centile) | 1.22 (0.80, 1.04, 1.50, 1.95) | 1.22 (0.80, 1.04, 1.50, 1.95) |
| Â Â Â Â N Missing (% Missing%) | 5,519,844 (83%) | 2,364,826 (83%) |
| ldl | ||
| Â Â Â Â Median (5% Centile, Q1, Q3, 95% Centile) | 3.07 (1.60, 2.40, 3.70, 4.70) | 3.06 (1.60, 2.40, 3.70, 4.70) |
| Â Â Â Â N Missing (% Missing%) | 5,756,144 (86%) | 2,466,236 (86%) |
| 1 n (%) | ||
Outcome incidence rates
| total follow up (years) | n events | rate (per 1000 years) | year |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3554268 | 24999 | 7.033517 | 2005-01-01 |
| 3619813 | 25113 | 6.937652 | 2006-01-01 |
| 3683994 | 24809 | 6.734267 | 2007-01-01 |
| 3762988 | 24937 | 6.626914 | 2008-01-01 |
| 3814630 | 25500 | 6.684789 | 2009-01-01 |
| 3863668 | 25204 | 6.523335 | 2010-01-01 |
| 3897504 | 25269 | 6.483380 | 2011-01-01 |
| 3962134 | 25887 | 6.533600 | 2012-01-01 |
| 3975906 | 25474 | 6.407093 | 2013-01-01 |
| 4023383 | 25565 | 6.354105 | 2014-01-01 |
| 4107558 | 26005 | 6.331012 | 2015-01-01 |
| 4228502 | 26767 | 6.330137 | 2016-01-01 |
| 4333320 | 27809 | 6.417481 | 2017-01-01 |
| 4437280 | 28048 | 6.320990 | 2018-01-01 |
| 5180255 | 33674 | 6.500452 | 2019-01-01 |
1.3 Overall outcome incidence rates
Overall:
| Gender | total follow up (years) | n events | rate (per 1000 years) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Male | 60445203 | 395060 | 6.535837 |
| Female | 61336898 | 301383 | 4.913568 |
Primary care only:
| Gender | total follow up (years) | n events | rate (per 1000 years) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Male | 60665210 | 299952 | 4.944382 |
| Female | 61540711 | 221315 | 3.596237 |
Secondary care only:
| Gender | total follow up (years) | n events | rate (per 1000 years) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Male | 60898361 | 269188 | 4.420283 |
| Female | 61786335 | 187618 | 3.036561 |
ONS death data only:
| Gender | total follow up (years) | n events | rate (per 1000 years) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Male | 62211142 | 66633 | 1.0710782 |
| Female | 62597055 | 52057 | 0.8316206 |
2 Convergence plots for imputation
Female
Male
3 Shape of non-linear effects interacted with age
Hazard ratio as age increases, interacted with each of the other predictor variables. The spline for age had knots at 25, 40, 55 and 70.
3.1 Interaction with binary variables
3.2 Interaction with polytomous variables
Female Hazard Ratios
Male Hazard Ratios
3.3 Interaction with continuous variables
These plots show how the hazrd ratio of the variable of interst changes relative to a reference value, for a discrete range of ages. The reference value is 25 for BMI, 120 for SBP, 5 for SBP variability, and 3 for cholesterol/HDL ratio. Plotting from the 2.5th to p7.5th percentile.
Alternatively, I could plot how the hazard ratio comparing two fixed values (say 40 vs 25, 30 vs 25, and 20 vs 25) changes as age increases. This would arguably be more 'similar' to the other plots, but I think less informative.
Female Hazard Ratios
Male Hazard Ratios
3.4 Hazard ratio for age
Hazard ratio is assessed at the mean of all other continuous variables, and the reference value for all categorical variables. the hazard ratio is relative to someone age 40.
4 Model evaluation at baseline (visit 0)
4.1 Calibration plots
4.1.1 Calibration in the entire cohort
Female:
Male:
4.1.2 Calibration by age
Female:
Male:
4.1.3 Calibration by ethnicity
Female:
Male:
4.1.4 Calibration by region
Female:
Male:
4.2 Calibration tables
Female:
| N | ICI | E50 | E90 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entire cohort | 2969869 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| White | 2383595 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Bangladeshi | 20838 | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Black african | 89036 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Black caribbean | 41817 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Chinese | 56055 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Indian | 89690 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.004 |
| Other asian | 74230 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Other ethnic | 166417 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Pakistani | 48191 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| (17,30] | 1212938 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| (30,40] | 636504 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| (40,50] | 406103 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| (50,60] | 305530 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| (60,70] | 213948 | 0.005 | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| (70,80] | 137794 | 0.009 | 0.009 | 0.011 |
| (80,Inf] | 57052 | 0.007 | 0.005 | 0.015 |
| East Midlands | 84623 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.006 |
| East of England | 121992 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| London | 708877 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| North East | 83788 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| North West | 485399 | 0.005 | 0.001 | 0.017 |
| South Central | 352873 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| South East Coast | 244682 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| South West | 344630 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| West Midlands | 428709 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Yorkshire And The Humber | 111098 | 0.003 | 0.000 | 0.010 |
Male:
| N | ICI | E50 | E90 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entire cohort | 2969869 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| White | 2383595 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| Bangladeshi | 20838 | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Black african | 89036 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Black caribbean | 41817 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| Chinese | 56055 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Indian | 89690 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.004 |
| Other asian | 74230 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Other ethnic | 166417 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Pakistani | 48191 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| (17,30] | 1212938 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| (30,40] | 636504 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| (40,50] | 406103 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| (50,60] | 305530 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| (60,70] | 213948 | 0.005 | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| (70,80] | 137794 | 0.009 | 0.009 | 0.011 |
| (80,Inf] | 57052 | 0.007 | 0.005 | 0.015 |
| East Midlands | 84623 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.006 |
| East of England | 121992 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| London | 708877 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| North East | 83788 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| North West | 485399 | 0.005 | 0.001 | 0.017 |
| South Central | 352873 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| South East Coast | 244682 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| South West | 344630 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| West Midlands | 428709 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Yorkshire And The Humber | 111098 | 0.003 | 0.000 | 0.010 |
4.3 Discrimination
4.3.1 Entire cohort
The mean (sd) and median (2.5th - 97.5th percentile range) across the results when validated in each development/validation pair.
Female:
| mean (sd) | median (p2.5, p97.5) | min | max |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.87 (0) | 0.87 (0.87,0.87) | 0.87 | 0.87 |
Male:
| mean (sd) | median (p2.5, p97.5) | min | max |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.86 (0) | 0.86 (0.86,0.86) | 0.86 | 0.86 |
4.3.2 Across subgroups
Evaluated in one development/validation pair.
Female:
| N | C_index | index_lower | index_upper | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entire cohort | 2969869 | 0.874 | 1.08795e+11 | 1.244425e+11 |
| white | 2383595 | 0.868 | 8.68000e-01 | 8.680000e-01 |
| bangladeshi | 20838 | 0.902 | 9.01000e-01 | 9.020000e-01 |
| black african | 89036 | 0.871 | 8.71000e-01 | 8.710000e-01 |
| black caribbean | 41817 | 0.858 | 8.57000e-01 | 8.580000e-01 |
| chinese | 56055 | 0.918 | 9.17000e-01 | 9.180000e-01 |
| indian | 89690 | 0.894 | 8.94000e-01 | 8.950000e-01 |
| other asian | 74230 | 0.903 | 9.03000e-01 | 9.030000e-01 |
| other ethnic | 166417 | 0.893 | 8.93000e-01 | 8.930000e-01 |
| pakistani | 48191 | 0.894 | 8.94000e-01 | 8.940000e-01 |
| (17,30] | 1212938 | 0.643 | 6.43000e-01 | 6.430000e-01 |
| (30,40] | 636504 | 0.738 | 7.38000e-01 | 7.380000e-01 |
| (40,50] | 406103 | 0.731 | 7.31000e-01 | 7.310000e-01 |
| (50,60] | 305530 | 0.681 | 6.81000e-01 | 6.810000e-01 |
| (60,70] | 213948 | 0.637 | 6.37000e-01 | 6.370000e-01 |
| (70,80] | 137794 | 0.603 | 6.03000e-01 | 6.030000e-01 |
| (80,Inf] | 57052 | 0.577 | 5.77000e-01 | 5.770000e-01 |
| East Midlands | 84623 | 0.886 | 8.85000e-01 | 8.860000e-01 |
| East of England | 121992 | 0.872 | 8.72000e-01 | 8.720000e-01 |
| London | 708877 | 0.893 | 8.93000e-01 | 8.930000e-01 |
| North East | 83788 | 0.864 | 8.64000e-01 | 8.640000e-01 |
| North West | 485399 | 0.864 | 8.64000e-01 | 8.640000e-01 |
| South Central | 352873 | 0.882 | 8.82000e-01 | 8.820000e-01 |
| South East Coast | 244682 | 0.873 | 8.73000e-01 | 8.730000e-01 |
| South West | 344630 | 0.868 | 8.68000e-01 | 8.680000e-01 |
| West Midlands | 428709 | 0.859 | 8.59000e-01 | 8.590000e-01 |
| Yorkshire And The Humber | 111098 | 0.876 | 8.76000e-01 | 8.760000e-01 |
Male:
| N | C_index | index_lower | index_upper | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entire cohort | 2853251 | 0.859 | 1.39642e+11 | 1.6261e+11 |
| white | 2255357 | 0.850 | 8.50000e-01 | 8.5000e-01 |
| bangladeshi | 25778 | 0.893 | 8.93000e-01 | 8.9300e-01 |
| black african | 87189 | 0.875 | 8.75000e-01 | 8.7600e-01 |
| black caribbean | 37750 | 0.882 | 8.82000e-01 | 8.8200e-01 |
| chinese | 42249 | 0.937 | 9.37000e-01 | 9.3700e-01 |
| indian | 101988 | 0.886 | 8.86000e-01 | 8.8600e-01 |
| other asian | 81291 | 0.892 | 8.92000e-01 | 8.9200e-01 |
| other ethnic | 162327 | 0.879 | 8.79000e-01 | 8.7900e-01 |
| pakistani | 59322 | 0.893 | 8.93000e-01 | 8.9300e-01 |
| (17,30] | 1085269 | 0.702 | 7.02000e-01 | 7.0200e-01 |
| (30,40] | 667332 | 0.722 | 7.22000e-01 | 7.2200e-01 |
| (40,50] | 466242 | 0.693 | 6.93000e-01 | 6.9300e-01 |
| (50,60] | 313025 | 0.650 | 6.50000e-01 | 6.5000e-01 |
| (60,70] | 192902 | 0.610 | 6.10000e-01 | 6.1100e-01 |
| (70,80] | 99173 | 0.587 | 5.87000e-01 | 5.8700e-01 |
| (80,Inf] | 29308 | 0.568 | 5.68000e-01 | 5.6800e-01 |
| East Midlands | 82136 | 0.880 | 8.80000e-01 | 8.8000e-01 |
| East of England | 115336 | 0.851 | 8.51000e-01 | 8.5100e-01 |
| London | 669396 | 0.882 | 8.82000e-01 | 8.8200e-01 |
| North East | 80533 | 0.842 | 8.42000e-01 | 8.4200e-01 |
| North West | 474969 | 0.850 | 8.50000e-01 | 8.5000e-01 |
| South Central | 338673 | 0.859 | 8.59000e-01 | 8.5900e-01 |
| South East Coast | 232467 | 0.850 | 8.50000e-01 | 8.5000e-01 |
| South West | 329698 | 0.854 | 8.54000e-01 | 8.5400e-01 |
| West Midlands | 418996 | 0.845 | 8.45000e-01 | 8.4500e-01 |
| Yorkshire And The Humber | 107727 | 0.859 | 8.58000e-01 | 8.5900e-01 |
4.4 Instability plots
These instability pare plotted for 3,000 randomly selected individuals. The variation on the y-axis represents the expected variability in risk if the development cohort was to be re-sampled from the entire population which it represents, and a model was developed in these re-sampled cohorts. Naturally, variation increases as the predicted risk increases. We see a small number of individuals where the variability exceeds that of other individuals at their level of predicted risk. Looking at these individuals highlights them to be those with a higher number of risk factors.
5 Temporal validation of initial risk estimation layer
Follow-up index dates are defined at 1/2/3/4/5 years after baseline. Calibration and discrimination are assessed at 5 and 10 years.
In plots and tables, t_fup = number of days after baseline the index date is defined at, t_eval is denoting whether evaluating 5 or 10 year risk predictions.
5.1 Calibration plots
5.1.1 Female
5.1.2 Male
5.2 Calibration tables
| gender | t | follow-up visit | N | ICI | E50 | E90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| female | 5 | 1 | 2455459 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| female | 5 | 2 | 2058812 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| female | 5 | 3 | 1757932 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| female | 5 | 4 | 1532580 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| female | 5 | 5 | 1351932 | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| female | 10 | 1 | 2455459 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| female | 10 | 2 | 2058812 | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| female | 10 | 3 | 1757932 | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.009 |
| female | 10 | 4 | 1532580 | 0.004 | 0.002 | 0.011 |
| female | 10 | 5 | 1351932 | 0.005 | 0.002 | 0.013 |
| male | 5 | 1 | 2425374 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| male | 5 | 2 | 2077642 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| male | 5 | 3 | 1793566 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| male | 5 | 4 | 1562777 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| male | 5 | 5 | 1374424 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| male | 10 | 1 | 2425374 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| male | 10 | 2 | 2077642 | 0.003 | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| male | 10 | 3 | 1793566 | 0.004 | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| male | 10 | 4 | 1562777 | 0.004 | 0.003 | 0.009 |
| male | 10 | 5 | 1374424 | 0.005 | 0.003 | 0.010 |
5.3 Discrimination
| gender | t | follow-up visit | N | C_index | index_lower | index_upper |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| female | 5 years | 1 | 2455459 | 0.867 | 0.867 | 0.867 |
| female | 5 years | 2 | 2058812 | 0.859 | 0.859 | 0.859 |
| female | 5 years | 3 | 1757932 | 0.853 | 0.853 | 0.853 |
| female | 5 years | 4 | 1532580 | 0.847 | 0.847 | 0.847 |
| female | 5 years | 5 | 1351932 | 0.841 | 0.841 | 0.841 |
| female | 10 years | 1 | 2455459 | 0.867 | 0.867 | 0.867 |
| female | 10 years | 2 | 2058812 | 0.859 | 0.859 | 0.859 |
| female | 10 years | 3 | 1757932 | 0.853 | 0.853 | 0.853 |
| female | 10 years | 4 | 1532580 | 0.847 | 0.847 | 0.847 |
| female | 10 years | 5 | 1351932 | 0.841 | 0.841 | 0.841 |
| male | 5 years | 1 | 2425374 | 0.850 | 0.850 | 0.850 |
| male | 5 years | 2 | 2077642 | 0.842 | 0.842 | 0.842 |
| male | 5 years | 3 | 1793566 | 0.834 | 0.834 | 0.834 |
| male | 5 years | 4 | 1562777 | 0.826 | 0.826 | 0.826 |
| male | 5 years | 5 | 1374424 | 0.818 | 0.818 | 0.818 |
| male | 10 years | 1 | 2425374 | 0.850 | 0.850 | 0.850 |
| male | 10 years | 2 | 2077642 | 0.842 | 0.842 | 0.842 |
| male | 10 years | 3 | 1793566 | 0.834 | 0.834 | 0.834 |
| male | 10 years | 4 | 1562777 | 0.826 | 0.826 | 0.826 |
| male | 10 years | 5 | 1374424 | 0.818 | 0.818 | 0.818 |
6 Temporal validation of intervention layer
Follow-up index dates are defined at 1/2/3/4/5 years after baseline. Calibration and discrimination are assessed at 5 and 10 years. We assess interventional changes in each modifiable risk factor sequentially.
In plots and tables, t_fup = number of days after baseline the index date is defined at, t_eval is denoting whether evaluating 5 or 10 year risk predictions, mfr denotes the modifiable risk factor being evaluated.
6.1 Calibration plots
6.1.1 SBP
6.1.1.1 Female
6.1.1.2 Male
6.1.2 BMI
6.1.2.1 Female
6.1.2.2 Male
6.1.3 Non-HDL cholesterol
6.1.3.1 Female
6.1.3.2 Male
6.1.4 Smoking status
6.1.4.1 Female
6.1.4.2 Male
6.2 Calibration tables
| gender | t | MFR | follow-up visit | N | ICI | E50 | E90 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| female | 5 | systolic blood pressure | 1 | 1968593 | 0.002 | 0.000 | 0.005 |
| female | 5 | systolic blood pressure | 2 | 1662971 | 0.003 | 0.000 | 0.004 |
| female | 5 | systolic blood pressure | 3 | 1428062 | 0.003 | 0.000 | 0.004 |
| female | 5 | systolic blood pressure | 4 | 1250995 | 0.004 | 0.000 | 0.004 |
| female | 5 | systolic blood pressure | 5 | 1105753 | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| female | 5 | body mass index | 1 | 1543950 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| female | 5 | body mass index | 2 | 1269513 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| female | 5 | body mass index | 3 | 1062159 | 0.002 | 0.000 | 0.004 |
| female | 5 | body mass index | 4 | 909644 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| female | 5 | body mass index | 5 | 788406 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| female | 5 | non-HDL cholesterol | 1 | 428588 | 0.004 | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| female | 5 | non-HDL cholesterol | 2 | 366484 | 0.004 | 0.003 | 0.006 |
| female | 5 | non-HDL cholesterol | 3 | 316919 | 0.004 | 0.003 | 0.008 |
| female | 5 | non-HDL cholesterol | 4 | 276939 | 0.004 | 0.003 | 0.009 |
| female | 5 | non-HDL cholesterol | 5 | 241240 | 0.004 | 0.003 | 0.009 |
| female | 5 | smoking status | 1 | 2255786 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| female | 5 | smoking status | 2 | 1891789 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.003 |
| female | 5 | smoking status | 3 | 1614590 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| female | 5 | smoking status | 4 | 1406987 | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| female | 5 | smoking status | 5 | 1239519 | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.008 |
| female | 10 | systolic blood pressure | 1 | 1968593 | 0.004 | 0.000 | 0.008 |
| female | 10 | systolic blood pressure | 2 | 1662971 | 0.005 | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| female | 10 | systolic blood pressure | 3 | 1428062 | 0.006 | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| female | 10 | systolic blood pressure | 4 | 1250995 | 0.006 | 0.001 | 0.010 |
| female | 10 | systolic blood pressure | 5 | 1105753 | 0.006 | 0.001 | 0.013 |
| female | 10 | body mass index | 1 | 1543950 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| female | 10 | body mass index | 2 | 1269513 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.006 |
| female | 10 | body mass index | 3 | 1062159 | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.009 |
| female | 10 | body mass index | 4 | 909644 | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.011 |
| female | 10 | body mass index | 5 | 788406 | 0.005 | 0.001 | 0.014 |
| female | 10 | non-HDL cholesterol | 1 | 428588 | 0.007 | 0.007 | 0.010 |
| female | 10 | non-HDL cholesterol | 2 | 366484 | 0.008 | 0.006 | 0.015 |
| female | 10 | non-HDL cholesterol | 3 | 316919 | 0.008 | 0.006 | 0.019 |
| female | 10 | non-HDL cholesterol | 4 | 276939 | 0.008 | 0.005 | 0.019 |
| female | 10 | non-HDL cholesterol | 5 | 241240 | 0.008 | 0.005 | 0.021 |
| female | 10 | smoking status | 1 | 2255786 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| female | 10 | smoking status | 2 | 1891789 | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| female | 10 | smoking status | 3 | 1614590 | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.011 |
| female | 10 | smoking status | 4 | 1406987 | 0.005 | 0.002 | 0.013 |
| female | 10 | smoking status | 5 | 1239519 | 0.006 | 0.002 | 0.016 |
| male | 5 | systolic blood pressure | 1 | 1416229 | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.008 |
| male | 5 | systolic blood pressure | 2 | 1215758 | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.008 |
| male | 5 | systolic blood pressure | 3 | 1052251 | 0.005 | 0.001 | 0.008 |
| male | 5 | systolic blood pressure | 4 | 919573 | 0.005 | 0.001 | 0.007 |
| male | 5 | systolic blood pressure | 5 | 808802 | 0.006 | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| male | 5 | body mass index | 1 | 1260371 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| male | 5 | body mass index | 2 | 1053639 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| male | 5 | body mass index | 3 | 885211 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| male | 5 | body mass index | 4 | 751650 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| male | 5 | body mass index | 5 | 644397 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| male | 5 | non-HDL cholesterol | 1 | 415115 | 0.004 | 0.005 | 0.007 |
| male | 5 | non-HDL cholesterol | 2 | 354341 | 0.004 | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| male | 5 | non-HDL cholesterol | 3 | 304912 | 0.004 | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| male | 5 | non-HDL cholesterol | 4 | 264177 | 0.004 | 0.004 | 0.006 |
| male | 5 | non-HDL cholesterol | 5 | 228701 | 0.005 | 0.004 | 0.007 |
| male | 5 | smoking status | 1 | 2021227 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| male | 5 | smoking status | 2 | 1724289 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| male | 5 | smoking status | 3 | 1481106 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| male | 5 | smoking status | 4 | 1283919 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| male | 5 | smoking status | 5 | 1122313 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| male | 10 | systolic blood pressure | 1 | 1416229 | 0.006 | 0.001 | 0.012 |
| male | 10 | systolic blood pressure | 2 | 1215758 | 0.007 | 0.001 | 0.011 |
| male | 10 | systolic blood pressure | 3 | 1052251 | 0.008 | 0.002 | 0.012 |
| male | 10 | systolic blood pressure | 4 | 919573 | 0.008 | 0.002 | 0.015 |
| male | 10 | systolic blood pressure | 5 | 808802 | 0.009 | 0.002 | 0.018 |
| male | 10 | body mass index | 1 | 1260371 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| male | 10 | body mass index | 2 | 1053639 | 0.003 | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| male | 10 | body mass index | 3 | 885211 | 0.004 | 0.002 | 0.008 |
| male | 10 | body mass index | 4 | 751650 | 0.004 | 0.002 | 0.011 |
| male | 10 | body mass index | 5 | 644397 | 0.005 | 0.002 | 0.011 |
| male | 10 | non-HDL cholesterol | 1 | 415115 | 0.007 | 0.008 | 0.011 |
| male | 10 | non-HDL cholesterol | 2 | 354341 | 0.007 | 0.007 | 0.011 |
| male | 10 | non-HDL cholesterol | 3 | 304912 | 0.008 | 0.006 | 0.016 |
| male | 10 | non-HDL cholesterol | 4 | 264177 | 0.008 | 0.006 | 0.018 |
| male | 10 | non-HDL cholesterol | 5 | 228701 | 0.009 | 0.006 | 0.020 |
| male | 10 | smoking status | 1 | 2021227 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| male | 10 | smoking status | 2 | 1724289 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| male | 10 | smoking status | 3 | 1481106 | 0.004 | 0.002 | 0.009 |
| male | 10 | smoking status | 4 | 1283919 | 0.005 | 0.003 | 0.011 |
| male | 10 | smoking status | 5 | 1122313 | 0.005 | 0.003 | 0.013 |
6.3 Discrimination
| gender | t | MFR | follow-up visit | N | C_index | index_lower | index_upper |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| female | 5 years | systolic blood pressure | 1 | 1968593 | 0.857 | 0.857 | 0.857 |
| female | 5 years | systolic blood pressure | 2 | 1662971 | 0.849 | 0.849 | 0.849 |
| female | 5 years | systolic blood pressure | 3 | 1428062 | 0.842 | 0.842 | 0.842 |
| female | 5 years | systolic blood pressure | 4 | 1250995 | 0.837 | 0.837 | 0.837 |
| female | 5 years | systolic blood pressure | 5 | 1105753 | 0.831 | 0.831 | 0.831 |
| female | 5 years | body mass index | 1 | 1543950 | 0.868 | 0.868 | 0.868 |
| female | 5 years | body mass index | 2 | 1269513 | 0.861 | 0.861 | 0.861 |
| female | 5 years | body mass index | 3 | 1062159 | 0.855 | 0.855 | 0.855 |
| female | 5 years | body mass index | 4 | 909644 | 0.849 | 0.849 | 0.849 |
| female | 5 years | body mass index | 5 | 788406 | 0.844 | 0.844 | 0.844 |
| female | 5 years | non-HDL cholesterol | 1 | 428588 | 0.757 | 0.757 | 0.757 |
| female | 5 years | non-HDL cholesterol | 2 | 366484 | 0.751 | 0.751 | 0.751 |
| female | 5 years | non-HDL cholesterol | 3 | 316919 | 0.746 | 0.746 | 0.746 |
| female | 5 years | non-HDL cholesterol | 4 | 276939 | 0.743 | 0.743 | 0.743 |
| female | 5 years | non-HDL cholesterol | 5 | 241240 | 0.739 | 0.738 | 0.739 |
| female | 5 years | smoking status | 1 | 2255786 | 0.865 | 0.865 | 0.865 |
| female | 5 years | smoking status | 2 | 1891789 | 0.857 | 0.857 | 0.857 |
| female | 5 years | smoking status | 3 | 1614590 | 0.851 | 0.851 | 0.851 |
| female | 5 years | smoking status | 4 | 1406987 | 0.845 | 0.845 | 0.845 |
| female | 5 years | smoking status | 5 | 1239519 | 0.839 | 0.839 | 0.839 |
| female | 10 years | systolic blood pressure | 1 | 1968593 | 0.858 | 0.858 | 0.858 |
| female | 10 years | systolic blood pressure | 2 | 1662971 | 0.850 | 0.850 | 0.850 |
| female | 10 years | systolic blood pressure | 3 | 1428062 | 0.843 | 0.843 | 0.843 |
| female | 10 years | systolic blood pressure | 4 | 1250995 | 0.838 | 0.838 | 0.838 |
| female | 10 years | systolic blood pressure | 5 | 1105753 | 0.832 | 0.832 | 0.832 |
| female | 10 years | body mass index | 1 | 1543950 | 0.868 | 0.868 | 0.868 |
| female | 10 years | body mass index | 2 | 1269513 | 0.861 | 0.861 | 0.861 |
| female | 10 years | body mass index | 3 | 1062159 | 0.855 | 0.855 | 0.855 |
| female | 10 years | body mass index | 4 | 909644 | 0.849 | 0.849 | 0.849 |
| female | 10 years | body mass index | 5 | 788406 | 0.844 | 0.844 | 0.844 |
| female | 10 years | non-HDL cholesterol | 1 | 428588 | 0.757 | 0.757 | 0.757 |
| female | 10 years | non-HDL cholesterol | 2 | 366484 | 0.751 | 0.751 | 0.751 |
| female | 10 years | non-HDL cholesterol | 3 | 316919 | 0.746 | 0.746 | 0.746 |
| female | 10 years | non-HDL cholesterol | 4 | 276939 | 0.743 | 0.743 | 0.743 |
| female | 10 years | non-HDL cholesterol | 5 | 241240 | 0.739 | 0.739 | 0.739 |
| female | 10 years | smoking status | 1 | 2255786 | 0.865 | 0.865 | 0.865 |
| female | 10 years | smoking status | 2 | 1891789 | 0.857 | 0.857 | 0.857 |
| female | 10 years | smoking status | 3 | 1614590 | 0.851 | 0.851 | 0.851 |
| female | 10 years | smoking status | 4 | 1406987 | 0.845 | 0.845 | 0.845 |
| female | 10 years | smoking status | 5 | 1239519 | 0.839 | 0.839 | 0.839 |
| male | 5 years | systolic blood pressure | 1 | 1416229 | 0.816 | 0.816 | 0.816 |
| male | 5 years | systolic blood pressure | 2 | 1215758 | 0.806 | 0.806 | 0.806 |
| male | 5 years | systolic blood pressure | 3 | 1052251 | 0.797 | 0.797 | 0.797 |
| male | 5 years | systolic blood pressure | 4 | 919573 | 0.788 | 0.788 | 0.788 |
| male | 5 years | systolic blood pressure | 5 | 808802 | 0.779 | 0.779 | 0.779 |
| male | 5 years | body mass index | 1 | 1260371 | 0.844 | 0.844 | 0.844 |
| male | 5 years | body mass index | 2 | 1053639 | 0.834 | 0.834 | 0.834 |
| male | 5 years | body mass index | 3 | 885211 | 0.825 | 0.825 | 0.825 |
| male | 5 years | body mass index | 4 | 751650 | 0.817 | 0.817 | 0.817 |
| male | 5 years | body mass index | 5 | 644397 | 0.808 | 0.808 | 0.808 |
| male | 5 years | non-HDL cholesterol | 1 | 415115 | 0.736 | 0.736 | 0.736 |
| male | 5 years | non-HDL cholesterol | 2 | 354341 | 0.729 | 0.729 | 0.729 |
| male | 5 years | non-HDL cholesterol | 3 | 304912 | 0.722 | 0.722 | 0.722 |
| male | 5 years | non-HDL cholesterol | 4 | 264177 | 0.716 | 0.716 | 0.716 |
| male | 5 years | non-HDL cholesterol | 5 | 228701 | 0.708 | 0.708 | 0.708 |
| male | 5 years | smoking status | 1 | 2021227 | 0.843 | 0.843 | 0.843 |
| male | 5 years | smoking status | 2 | 1724289 | 0.833 | 0.833 | 0.833 |
| male | 5 years | smoking status | 3 | 1481106 | 0.824 | 0.824 | 0.824 |
| male | 5 years | smoking status | 4 | 1283919 | 0.816 | 0.816 | 0.816 |
| male | 5 years | smoking status | 5 | 1122313 | 0.807 | 0.807 | 0.807 |
| male | 10 years | systolic blood pressure | 1 | 1416229 | 0.816 | 0.816 | 0.816 |
| male | 10 years | systolic blood pressure | 2 | 1215758 | 0.807 | 0.807 | 0.807 |
| male | 10 years | systolic blood pressure | 3 | 1052251 | 0.798 | 0.798 | 0.798 |
| male | 10 years | systolic blood pressure | 4 | 919573 | 0.789 | 0.789 | 0.789 |
| male | 10 years | systolic blood pressure | 5 | 808802 | 0.781 | 0.781 | 0.781 |
| male | 10 years | body mass index | 1 | 1260371 | 0.844 | 0.844 | 0.844 |
| male | 10 years | body mass index | 2 | 1053639 | 0.834 | 0.834 | 0.834 |
| male | 10 years | body mass index | 3 | 885211 | 0.825 | 0.825 | 0.825 |
| male | 10 years | body mass index | 4 | 751650 | 0.817 | 0.817 | 0.817 |
| male | 10 years | body mass index | 5 | 644397 | 0.808 | 0.808 | 0.808 |
| male | 10 years | non-HDL cholesterol | 1 | 415115 | 0.736 | 0.736 | 0.736 |
| male | 10 years | non-HDL cholesterol | 2 | 354341 | 0.729 | 0.729 | 0.729 |
| male | 10 years | non-HDL cholesterol | 3 | 304912 | 0.722 | 0.722 | 0.722 |
| male | 10 years | non-HDL cholesterol | 4 | 264177 | 0.716 | 0.716 | 0.716 |
| male | 10 years | non-HDL cholesterol | 5 | 228701 | 0.709 | 0.709 | 0.709 |
| male | 10 years | smoking status | 1 | 2021227 | 0.843 | 0.843 | 0.843 |
| male | 10 years | smoking status | 2 | 1724289 | 0.833 | 0.833 | 0.833 |
| male | 10 years | smoking status | 3 | 1481106 | 0.824 | 0.824 | 0.824 |
| male | 10 years | smoking status | 4 | 1283919 | 0.816 | 0.816 | 0.816 |
| male | 10 years | smoking status | 5 | 1122313 | 0.807 | 0.807 | 0.807 |